The potential for a John McCain win in the scenarios run by FiveThirtyEight have surged to about 5%+ from a lowly 3% early yesterday. Frikkin' Indiana has gone blue-ish.
So I'm starting to think about how it's going to feel when it all goes 'down' - that is to say, when the Obama win happens and what inauguration day will be like. I remember Theo Epstein, the Red Sox G.M. talking about what it was like in '86 when the Sox got close to the World Series championship. He and his brother had climbed up on the back of the couch planning to leap off just before the final out was recorded by their team. They wanted to be 'in the air' when it finally happened.
Well, it's only been eight years since W. was elected and went on his journey of incompetance to such eyeball rattling effect on my liberal gestalt. But I still sense some enormous relief on the horizon. I e-mailed some pollsters to see if anyone would anticipate what election night will be like; at what point does it get called for Obama. Most of the northeast goes immediately in Obama column, so when does Wolf Blitzer crow that CNN is calling it for Barack? Is it all a matter of ratings? Will they want the audience to hang on until 11pm?
I was trying to figure out where I want to be if Obama wins early enough in the night. I remember in '04 walking around Rockefeller Center and seeing all the NBC news outlets with their raised platforms and talking heads all 'punditing' furiously. I have a clear recollection of Tim Russert and his little white board. Poor Tim...he's gonna miss out on all the fun. Or more appropriately we're gonna miss his commentary.
2 comments:
So on Thursday you're a centrist, but by Saturday you've become a liberal? You're confusing me.
I was enlightened by that Thursday post though. Up to reading that I kept thinking, how could you be such a blind supporter of Obama??? But now it's become more clear. You're not a blind supporter of him because you're a liberal (which I don't really think you are) and you'll support anyone on the Democrat ticket regardless of who they are, what their experience is, or what their past has in it. On the contrary, you seem to believe that Obama will be the second coming of Bill Clinton. Whereas I believe he will be the second coming of Jimmy Carter (see here: http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YTQ1ODVkYjc5ZDFkNzM3ZTc1ODc0Y2YxY2E0YWFkZGM
). As I've mentioned, I am more anti-Obama than pro-McCain, based on who is likely to do more damage to this country. I can only hope that your optimism for an Obama presidency has not been shattered two years down the road.
I am of the same opinion as you about the outcome of the election. Well, that is if votes don't actually have to be cast for Obama to win. If everything plays out perfectly for him, he'll win big. But I suspect a number of factors will make this thing a closer contest than a lot of people in the northeast think.
First, the polls seem to be wildly disparate. With all the stats that've been crammed down my throat in the last year or so, I can say with some level of professional experience that something stinks. Something is wrong with how people are being sampled. And if the history of polls is any indication (wasn't Gore trouncing Bush in the polls in Oct '00... wasn't Kerry maintaining a comfortable lead over Bush in Oct '04? And apparently Gallup even had Carter winning over Reagan in Oct '80) then that Tuesday evening will be pretty interesting.
Next, all of this premature Obama endzone victory dancing could negatively affect voter turnout. Those who think it's in the bag and can't otherwise be bothered to lift a lazy finger to vote will just stay in their dorm rooms and say they voted for their man.
Finally, all this talk of racism ("you're a racist if you say [insert negative comment here] about Obama")(and won't that make for a fun administration) has many otherwise mild-mannered "whities" (as you call them) fearful of being labeled something that they aren't, so maybe if the polls come calling they'll just say they're voting for Obama to avoid any questioning of their character. I can pretty well articulate why I am not voting for Obama, but many probably cannot, so why not just take the easy way out and tell people what they want to hear?
So that's my two cents' worth of election analysis. Maybe you're right. Maybe I'm right. Either way, I'll be glad when it's over.
A bit off topic, but I particularly enjoyed this column:
http://www.linearpublishing.com/orsonscottcard.html
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